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Wednesday, January 27, 2010

PredictingThe Fed's Next Move

The FOMC Statement has been released. Here is a recap:
  • FED REAFFIRMS PROMISE TO KEEP RATES EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
  • FED REPEATS EXPECTATION THAT MORTGAGE BACKED SECURITIES, AGENCY DEBT PURCHASES TO BE EXECUTED BY END OF Q1
  • SWAP ARRANGEMENTS WITH CENTRAL BANK COUNTERPARTIES WILL CLOSE SWAP ARRANGEMENTS ON FEB 1
  • FED SAYS WINDING DOWN TERM AUCTION FACILITY, FINAL AUCTION TO BE ON MARCH 8
  • HOENIG ONLY DISSENT IN DECISION ON POLICY ACTION; BELIEVED CONDITIONS CHANGED, LOW RATE, EXTENDED PERIOD VOW NO LONGER NEEDED
  • ECONOMIC ACTIVITY TO STRENGTHEN, DETERIORATION IN LABOR MARKET ABATING
  • HOUSEHOLD SPENDING EXPANDING AT MODERATE RATE, CONSTRAINED BY WEAK LABOR MARKET, TIGHT CREDIT
  • INVESTMENT IN STRUCTURES STILL CONTRACTING, BUSINESSES RELUCTANT TO ADD TO PAYROLLS
  • BANK LENDING CONTINUES TO CONTRACT, BUT FINANCIAL CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF GROWTH
  • PACE OF RECOVERY SEEN MODERATE FOR A TIME, FED ANTICIPATES GRADUAL RETURN TO HIGHER RESOURCE USE
  • FED SAYS WITH HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT, STABLE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION LIKELY SUBDUED FOR SOME TIME 

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